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Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A. Author/Speaker/Consultant
Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A. Author/Speaker/Consultant Internet Happenings, Events and Sources
Friday, July 09, 2004
The Futurist - The Intelligent Internet - The Promise of Smart Computers and E-Commerce By William E. Halal - Government Computer News Daily News (GCN) http://www.gcn.com/vol1_no1/daily-updates/26338-1.html
"Information and communication technologies are rapidly converging to create machines that understand us, do what we tell them to, and even anticipate our needs. We tend to think of intelligent systems as a distant possibility, but two relentless supertrends are moving this scenario toward near-term reality. Scientific advances are making it possible for people to talk to smart computers, while more enterprises are exploiting the commercial potential of the Internet. ... [F]orecasts conducted under the TechCast Project at George Washington University indicate that 20 commercial aspects of Internet use should reach 30% 'take-off' adoption levels during the second half of this decade to rejuvenate the economy. Meanwhile, the project's technology scanning finds that advances in speech recognition, artificial intelligence, powerful computers, virtual environments, and flat wall monitors are producing a 'conversational' human-machine interface. These powerful trends will drive the next generation of information technology into the mainstream by about 2010. ... The following are a few of the advances in speech recognition, artificial intelligence, powerful chips, virtual environments, and flat-screen wall monitors that are likely to produce this intelligent interface. ... IBM has a Super Human Speech Recognition Program to greatly improve accuracy, and in the next decade Microsoft's program is expected to reduce the error rate of speech recognition, matching human capabilities. ... MIT is planning to demonstrate their Project Oxygen, which features a voice-machine interface. ... Amtrak, Wells Fargo, Land's End, and many other organizations are replacing keypad-menu call centers with speech-recognition systems because they improve customer service and recover investment in a year or two. ... General Motors OnStar driver assistance system relies primarily on voice commands, with live staff for backup; the number of subscribers has grown from 200,000 to 2 million and is expected to increase by 1 million per year. The Lexus DVD Navigation System responds to over 100 commands and guides the driver with voice and visual directions. ... BCC Corporation estimates total AI sales to grow from $12 billion in 2002 to $21 billion in 2007. ... This scenario is not without uncertainties. Cynicism persists over unrealized promises of AI, and the Intelligent Internet will present its own problems. If you think today's dumb computers are frustrating, wait until you find yourself shouting at a virtual robot that repeatedly fails to grasp what you badly want it to do. ... The main obstacle is a lack of vision among industry leaders, customers, and the public as scars of the dot-com bust block creative thought."
posted by Marcus Zillman |
4:00 AM
